At the start of the season, we all thought that this Stanford-UCLA matchup at the end of the season would have significant postseason implications. And indeed, that does happen to be the case — just not so much for the Cardinal as it is for the Bruins.
UCLA (9-2, 6-2 Pac-12) currently sits at No. 8 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings and can secure its berth beside Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship Game with a win over Stanford. The Cardinal (6-5, 4-4), meanwhile, won’t have conference title or playoff hopes to play for today. The difference between a win and a loss will likely be the difference between Las Vegas and Tempe come bowl season — hardly a significant difference to Cardinal fans.
But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing at stake — in addition to the opportunity to play spoiler to UCLA and push one of the Arizona schools into the conference championship game, Stanford also has a six-game winning streak against UCLA at stake that it will be looking to push to seven, which would mark the longest ever streak by either team against its opponent.
It certainly won’t be easy this time around. UCLA — the preseason darlings of the Pac-12 — hasn’t exactly had the smoothest journey to its two-loss record, including unconvincing wins over Virginia, Memphis, Cal and Colorado. That being said, this is also a team that hasn’t lost since a close loss to Oregon on Oct. 11 and brutalized a good Arizona State team 62-27.
The pieces are there for the Bruins, but they’ve just had a bad habit of playing down to their opponents’ levels. They’ve just come out on top much more often than not in those close games.
Stanford, however, can’t really say the same this season. After going 14-5 under Shaw in one-possession games before this season, the Cardinal have suffered a regression to the mean, notching a 1-3 record in such games this year.
Despite the disparities in records and the struggles of the Stanford program this year, this is a matchup that does bode well for Stanford. The Cardinal have done a great job of limiting the normally explosive Bruins offense over the last two seasons, and with the defense realizing its turnover potential against Cal and playing with a fully healthy defensive line, the Cardinal have the formula to stop Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley and give UCLA fits on the offensive side of the ball.
Of course, it will still boil down to execution — something that Stanford has struggled with this season. But there were promising signs against Cal with an offensive line that was getting more push and playing a cleaner game, and a running back in Remound Wright that had the field vision to get the crucial few extra yards.
However, UCLA’s front seven will pose one of the most formidable challenges of the season to a running game that has largely struggled to get afloat. Stanford still seeks its first 100-yard rusher of the season, and if the monstrous Eddie Vanderdoes, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Myles Jack and Eric Kendricks have anything to say about it, Stanford will likely not end up with one.
That means that senior quarterback Kevin Hogan will likely need to attack through the air early and often. With his favorite target in senior wide receiver Ty Montgomery out for the game with a shoulder injury suffered in last week’s Big Game, that figures to be a tall order, but he had reasonable success finding his big possession receivers in Devon Cajuste and Austin Hooper and will need to continue to do so today to keep the chains moving.
But if the defense can continue its stifling play and limit the explosive Bruins offense like it has in the last two seasons, the offense will always have a chance to keep the game close. And if Hogan plays a clean game and the Cardinal play up to their potential, this is a game that the Cardinal could very well end up playing closer than most expect.
If there’s any team whose number Stanford has had over the last few seasons, it’s UCLA. The Cardinal will look to salvage the end of a lost season by keeping that going.
Stanford will take on UCLA at the Rose Bowl at 12:30 p.m., with the matchup to be televised on ABC.
Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dpark027 ‘at’ stanford.edu.