In advance of Saturday’s football game between Stanford and USC, The Daily’s Do-Hyoung Park chatted with Will Laws, one of the sports editors at The Daily Trojan, to get perspective from both camps.
Do-Hyoung Park (DP): So, first of all, I wanted to ask more of a big-picture question: Ever since Kiffin got the sack, the Trojans are 4-1 with convincing victories over Oregon State and Arizona. How has the team changed since Orgeron took over, and what’s been different?
Will Laws (WL): Well, the most obvious difference has been the loose atmosphere Orgeron has instituted since taking over the team. Before Kiffin was fired, the players were essentially playing for Kiffin’s coaching career at USC, and they knew it. Now, there’s no pressure on them.
Even if USC finishes 1-2 by beating Colorado and losing to Stanford and UCLA, Orgeron will, in all likelihood, stay on the staff as recruiting coordinator. And if they somehow win out or make the Pac-12 Championship, Athletic Director Pat Haden will have to take a hard look at Orgeron as the permanent head coach, which the players would love. And the offensive play calling has reflected that loose mentality — since taking the play calling reins from Kiffin, offensive coordinator Clay Helton has been more willing to take shots downfield with Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor, and it has helped all aspects of the offense.
I really thought that the Stanford offense would take a dip with the graduation of Stepfan Taylor, but the Cardinal hasn’t missed a beat, and has unearthed another gem in Tyler Gaffney. Taylor absolutely ripped USC last year for 213 total yards and two touchdowns — how does Gaffney compare to his predecessor?
DP: Most of us at Stanford thought that the running game (and by extension, the offense) would take a big hit with the graduation of Taylor, too. Shaw promised all offseason that he’d be using a rotating stable of running backs to supplant Taylor’s production, but Gaffney emerged early as the primary power back that had the vision and raw physical drive that could give the Card that production again and forced Shaw’s hand to make him the clear number one — after a year off for baseball, no less.
I don’t think Gaffney is quite on Taylor’s level — after all, you can’t simply replace a school’s all-time leading rusher and expect there not to be some dip in production — but Gaffney has been an absolute workhorse this year. He set a new school record with 45 carries against Oregon, and his ability to run downhill and smash for yards after contact has paid off in a huge way for the run game. It also helps that he runs behind Stanford’s monster offensive line.
Speaking of Stanford’s running game, the Trojan rush defense is ranked second in the Pac-12, behind only Stanford. USC’s defensive front is bigger and more physically capable of matching the Cardinal’s offensive line than that of the Ducks. Do you think the Trojans can stuff Stanford’s power-running game? If so, with the power run being the Cardinal offense’s bread and butter, what do you think that means for Stanford’s offense this Saturday?
WL: USC’s starting defensive front is certainly capable of shutting down Stanford’s running game, but there are a lot of “ifs” involved here. Sophomore defensive tackle Leonard Williams, arguably the most talented player on USC’s roster, missed last week’s game against Cal with a shoulder injury. He’s probable for this Saturday. If he’s healthy, USC stands a much better chance of shutting down Gaffney. If not, USC’s depth will be tested, and that might not turn out so well for a squad that is still reeling from scholarship reductions.
It’ll be tough for the Trojans to hold Stanford’s running game at bay for four quarters, even with Williams. And if USC can’t get past Stanford’s formidable offensive line, Kevin Hogan might have the best game of his career if he can capitalize on passes to the edge of the field against USC’s maligned cornerbacks.
USC’s offensive line isn’t nearly as big as Stanford’s, but it has shown improvement over the past couple of weeks. Do you think Stanford can afford to hold off on blitzes and depend on its defensive line to pressure Cody Kessler into mistakes?
DP: Stanford’s defensive line got a huge boost last week when senior defensive end Henry Anderson returned from an injury suffered in Week 3 against Army, and it definitely showed against Oregon, even with Ben Gardner out for the rest of the season. Anderson, Josh Mauro and David Parry are a formidable force up front and even though the depth on the line is a lot shakier than it was at the beginning of the season, all three of them have been making huge plays every game and have consistently brought pressure on quarterbacks.
I definitely think that the defensive line can get enough push, and we’ve been seeing that in the last few weeks. Even when Stanford didn’t blitz, the line was able to pressure Sean Mannion all evening against Oregon State and we all saw how uncomfortable Mariota was in the pocket against Oregon last Thursday. And when the Cardinal does choose to dial up the blitzes, linebacker Trent Murphy is absolutely lethal coming off the outside and linebacker Shayne Skov has been on the money timing his A-gap blitzes all year. I really think that this Stanford front seven is one of the best this school has ever seen and that it can get good pressure against any line in the country.
Do you think that the Trojan offense is going to miss Silas Redd on Saturday? The Cardinal is allowing 98.7 rushing yards per game — best in the Pac-12 — and even with Tre Madden available out of the backfield, that’s a hit to the depth of the running back stable for USC. How do you think the Trojan offense, particularly the running game, will fare against Stanford’s front seven and stingy secondary? What will be the key for the Trojans to put points on the board?
WL: Redd hasn’t been completely ruled out of the game — he was deemed “questionable” by Orgeron in practice earlier this week — but I honestly think it might be better for Redd to sit out against Stanford. His senior year has been devastated by injuries, and he hasn’t looked like the same player who appeared to be the clear-cut starter in spring practice. Earlier this season, Tre Madden was the workhorse Redd was supposed to be, and when Madden was sidelined, Buck Allen established himself by scoring six touchdowns and averaging 7.6 yards per carry over the past two games. But it’s safe to say that USC won’t run over Stanford like they did against Oregon State and Cal, so it’ll be up to Marqise Lee to perform like the Heisman candidate he was touted as heading into this season. If he can make a few big plays for USC’s offense, that could be the difference in a game that I’m expecting to be pretty low-scoring.
For the second straight year, Stanford wrecked Oregon’s hopes for a national championship and now controls its own destiny in the race for the Rose Bowl. What’s the mood on campus like right now after last week’s big win? Is the Cardinal faithful taking USC seriously as a potential challenger?
DP: The mood and energy on campus last Thursday night was absolutely incredible. Skov described it as the best crowd he had ever played for in his five years as a player here, and that energy certainly carried through in the aftermath of the game. But the thing about Stanford is that there’s a significant portion of the campus that is relatively ambivalent about football, so everyday life and mood hasn’t been affected too much. Within the football-aware crowd, though, it seems like everybody is reasonably confident and hopeful for the rest of the season.
That being said, though, a lot of people here are worried about the USC game. The last four Stanford-USC matchups showed that regardless of the differing levels of success of both teams in any given year, the games themselves have been tense nail-biters. Even within this recent win streak for the Cardinal, there was early-season upset of then-No. 2 USC last year, the triple-overtime the year before that and the last-minute field goal in 2010. None of those games disappointed in terms of matchup value and challenge in any way. Everybody knows that and everybody knows the extent and significance of the rivalry between the two teams, and so I think one would be hard-pressed to find a fan expecting anything less than a close, gritty matchup at the Coliseum on Stanford’s campus. It’s definitely a trap game after the huge Oregon win, and a full Coliseum after College GameDay egging on a resurgent USC team that still has Rose Bowl hopes will definitely be a big challenge.
What’s the mood on the USC campus like right now in the face of this big rivalry matchup? One has to think that there will be a lot of more confident fans out for blood, especially in the face of Stanford’s current four-game win streak in the matchup and the resurgence under Coach O. What does this rivalry mean to the fans and players?
WL: There hasn’t been this much optimism in the fan base since August 2012, before the downfall of Lane Kiffin began. It’s amazing how the Trojan faithful has been seemingly reinvigorated by the termination of Kiffin and USC’s subsequent inspiring play. There really hasn’t been a quality crowd at the Coliseum this year since the Trojans’ first home game of the season was ruined by the humiliating 10-7 loss to Washington State. As a senior who’s never witnessed a USC win over Stanford, I would take much more delight in a win over the Cardinal than a win over UCLA this year — and I know I’m not alone.
I’ve never heard the Coliseum louder than the moment Nickell Robey intercepted Andrew Luck to give the Trojans a 34-27 lead with just over three minutes remaining in that incredible showdown in Los Angeles two years ago. That game didn’t turn out in USC’s favor, and not much has since that deflating loss (outside of a 50-0 slaughter over UCLA to conclude that season). USC fans will definitely be at their loudest come Saturday to do their damnedest to prevent another heartbreaker at the hands of the Cardinal.
So with that being said, how do you see this matchup playing out?
DP: I think that it’ll be a physical, defensive game dictated by the battle in the trenches as each team tries to establish a running game. That’s going to be key for Stanford, especially after we saw the Cardinal struggle when it escaped from that run-first mentality in the middle of the season. I mentioned earlier that a lot of people are really worried about the matchup, but I do think that Stanford’s going to take a lot of confidence into the Coliseum after the Oregon win and I expect Hogan to be able to find receivers open for some big plays in the passing game, especially if it can get a running game going. I think it’ll be relatively close, but I’ll take Stanford 21-10. How about you?
WL: I see a pretty low-scoring affair, with both teams struggling to move the ball consistently. It’ll be interesting to see if USC’s offensive line has truly improved over the past couple weeks or just looked superior against weak defensive fronts. If they perform to their potential, then USC could definitely pull off the upset. If not, the Trojans might not reach the end zone. I think there will be a lot of field goals in this one, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see another overtime thriller. Vegas is currently favoring Stanford by 3 ½ points, and I think that’s spot on. In the end, I see Stanford eking out a 19-16 victory.
Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dpark027 ‘at’ stanford.edu.